Советую почитать: Статьи по оценке инвестиционных проектов Саввидеса

Savvides, Savvakis C., Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal (1994). Project Appraisal Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1, March 1994.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=265905

Savvides, Savvakis C., Marketing Analysis in Project Evaluation (May 1, 1990). Harvard Institute for International Development, Development Discussion Paper No. 341.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=266721&http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=266721

Savvides, Savvakis C., Market Analysis and Competitiveness in Project Appraisal (February 2000). Harvard Institute for International Development, Development Discussion Paper No. 755.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=262014

http://www.jamesjoyce.com.au/links&dls/dl_files/2007_Monte%20Carlo%20Simulation%20ACPS.pdf