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“I have noticed that everyone who ever told me that the markets are efficient is poor.”

—Larry Hite, Mint Investment Management Company

Most people think of themselves as investors. However, if you knew that the

biggest winners in the markets call themselves traders, wouldn’t

you want to know why? Simply put, they don’t invest; they trade.

Investors put their money, or capital, into a market, such as

stocks or real estate, under the assumption that the value will

always increase over time. As the value increases, so does the

person’s “investment.” Investors typically do not have a plan for

when their investment value decreases. They usually hold on to

their investment, hoping that the value will reverse itself and go

back up. Investors typically succeed in bull markets and lose in

bear markets.

This is because investors anticipate bear (down) markets with

fear and trepidation, and therefore, they are unable to plan how to

respond when they start to lose. They choose to “hang tight,” and

they continue to lose. They have an idea that a different approach

to their losing involves more complicated trading techniques such

as “selling short,” of which they know little and don’t care to learn.

If the mainstream press continually positions investing as “good” or

“safe” and trading as “bad” or “risky,” people are reluctant to align

themselves with traders or even seek to understand what trading is

about.

A trader has a defined plan or strategy to put capital into a

market to achieve a single goal: profit. Traders don’t care what they

own or what they sell as long as they end up with more money than

they started with. They are not investing in anything. They are

trading. It is a critical distinction.

“Rare events are always unexpected, otherwise they would not occur.”

—Nassim Taleb

Some insights for financial modelling, forecasting and strategy:

However, big events also generate plenty of inane analysis by

focusing on unanswerable questions such as those posed by

Thomas Ho and Sang Lee, authors of The Oxford Guide to

Financial Modeling:8

1. “What do these events tell us about our society?”

2. “Are these financial losses the dark sides of all the benefits of

financial derivatives?”

3. “Should we change the way we do things?”

4. “Should the society accept these financial losses as part of the

‘survival of the fittest’ in the world of business?”

5. “Should legislation be used to avoid these events?”

It is not unusual to see people frame market wins and losses as

a morality tale. These types of questions are designed to absolve the

guilt of the market losers for their bad strategies (i.e. Amaranth,

Bear Stearns, Bernard Madoff, etc.). The market is no place for

political excuses or social engineering. No law changes human

nature. If you don’t like losing, examine the strategy of the winners.

--Michael W. Covel